LOGICAL DECISIONS
Your Application
Air Force 2025
Site Location
Technology Evaluation
Electric Utility Resource Planning
Business Evaluation
Threat Evaluation
Your Application
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Air Force 2025
A large project conducted by the Air Force Institute of Technology (AFIT) to evaluate the Air Force’s long term mix of technologies. The project relied on Logical Decisions to evaluate the potential technologies’ ability to meet a wide variety of goals and objectives. See the Air Force 2025 report for more information.
Site Location
Weapons Systems
A series of weapon system siting studies was done for the Earth Technology Corporation, a subcontractor to the U.S.A.F. A facilitator worked closely with technical and environmental specialists to develop appropriate models and evaluation measures and conducted preference assessment interview sessions to evaluate the relative importance of the measures. Assessment interviews were performed with a large number of participants from technical specialists to Air Force officers up to the rank of Full Colonel. Information collected by a large and diverse study team was aggregated using an early version of Logical Decisions to generate ranking results. Several ranking analyses were done, including:
Small Missile Route Selection:
Selection of roads at White Sands Missile Range for use by truck mounted small nuclear missile system.
Small Missile Silo Selection:
Selection of sets of missile silos at Malmstrom AFB for location of truck mounted small nuclear missile system “parking lots”. Required combination of decision analysis and sophisticated operations research techniques to identify sets of sites with best combination of costs, environmental effects and programmatic considerations.
MX Missile Rail Garrison Site Selection:
Screening and selection of U.S.A.F. bases for use as “Train Stations” for rail mounted MX mobile missile system trains. Studies bases all across U.S. for suitability in terms of systems effectiveness, cost, environmental and socioeconomic effects and programmatic concerns. Recommended sites were reviewed by all levels of the Air Force/Dept. of Defense hierarchy and were selected as recommended in a public record of decision in Nov. 1989.
Reservoir Siting
Analyzed reservoir locations for the Metropolitan Water District of southern California. Six reservoir locations in southern California were evaluated for costs, operational considerations, and environmental and socioeconomic considerations. A facilitator worked with technical and environmental experts to define project goals and objectives and usable evaluation measures. The facilitator conducted preference assessment interviews with technical experts and MWD managers. LDW was used to consolidate site data to develop rankings and performed sensitivity analyses to confirm the ranking results. Helped prepare presentation and report materials. The recommended site has been approved by MWD directors and an Environmental Impacts Statement that includes the ranking analysis was issued and has now completed construction. The reservoir, now known as Diamond Valley Lake, Diamond Valley Lake, holds 800,000 acre-feet, or 260 billion gallons of water. By comparison, Lake Havasu, on the Colorado River, holds just 648,000 acre-feet or 201 billion gallons.
Pipeline Routing
Evaluated pipeline routes for the Metropolitan Water District of Southern California on the “Inland Feeder” pipeline project, which now brings water from the California aqueduct to the Diamond Valley Lake reservoir selected in the study described above. Provided similar evaluations on the San Diego Pipeline 6 project, which now delivers water from the Metropolitan Water District to the San Diego County Water Authority. These projects used a approach similar to that used on the Diamond Valley Lake project.
Technology Evaluation
The U.S. Army used Logical Decisions to evaluate alternatives for destroying its stockpiles of toxic gases. In this high visibility application, a facilitator used Logical Decisions to allow groups of subject matter experts to evaluate the alternative technologies on a variety of measures. The experts’ judgments about the relative importances of the measures were also assessed using Logical Decisions. Logical Decisions’ sensitivity analysis and display capabilities aided the Army decision makers in making and reporting their recommendation.
Electric Utility Resource Planning
The Lower Colorado River Authority in Austin, TX, used Logical Decisions to evaluate alternative plans for meeting future electrical power needs. Logical Decisions was used as a framework for evaluating alternative plans simultaneously under several different growth scenarios.
Business Evaluation
Logical Decisions was used to evaluate insurance companies for their quality as investments. A Logical Decisions consultant worked with insurance experts to develop useful evaluation measures of the financial stability and quality if insurance companies. (Similar to the ratings published by Standard & Poors and Moody’s.). The resulting Logical Decisions model was used by the client to rank the companies for their investment clients.
Threat Evaluation
Developed a “consequences model” to evaluate the severity of different types of threats at the Strategic Petroleum Reserve. Involved using Logical Decisions to define measures of the types of consequences that could occur and their relative importances.
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